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The Tehran Stock Exchange witnessed poor performances by major sectors this week. The TSE All-Share Index slipped by 1.2%, closing at 61,421, recording the lowest index measure since October 2015. The TEDPIX has mostly been affected by a 7% drop in the Oil Products sector. On the other hand, sugar companies have been the investors’ alter­native choice, adding 4.5% in a week.

 

By technical analysis perspective, the TSE All-Share Index has already entered its strongest support area, below 61,500. The next support levels are standing at 60,000 and 57,500, while the minimum index measure in 2015 has been 61,163. However, the Mon­ey Flow Index indicator demonstrates that the TSE All-Share Index has already gotten into the oversold area, considering the 40% drop in volume in December compared to the average volume figure for the year. For any uptrend scenario to take place, the index would first need to get back above the 63,000 level. 

 

Also, the index of the thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index, declined as it closed at 2,569 slipping by 1.8%. This marks the sixth consecutive week that the TSE30 index has been experiencing negative returns. This week, Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (PENS), and Bandar Abbas Oil Refining Co. (PNBA) and Behran Oil Co. (NBEH) had the highest negative influences on the index as they lost 9%, 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, Iran Telecommunication Co. (MKBT) had the highest gain among the top 30s by adding 2.9%.

 

Moreover, the Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market reached USD 35.4 mil­lion, 92% higher than the previous week. The ADTV was inflated by large volumes of trades by participation bonds, Sukuks and also block trades. Otherwise, the ADTV would have been almost 10% lower than the figure recorded last week. Meanwhile, the shares with the highest trade values were Mellat Bank (BMLT), Iran Counter (CONT) and Iran Polyacryl (PLAK) by recording USD 9.6, USD 8.4 and USD 3.3 million worth of trades. Mellat Bank’s share price closed at IRR 1,937 (approx. USD 5.3 cents), 0.36% lower than last week. But Iran Counter surged by 23% closing at IRR 16,578 (approx. USD 45.7 cents). The share price of Iran Polyacryl also gained 3.7%, as it closed at IRR 2,455 (approx. USD 6.7 cents).

 

The FX market witnessed almost zero changes in both official and market rates of the US Dollar. The Central Bank of Iran set the official USDIRR rate at 30,120, while the free market USD rate reached IRR 36,213. On the other hand, the official rate of Euro record­ed a 0.8% increase, reaching IRR 32,917. Similarly, its free market rate gained 0.1% to IRR 40,073. The official rate of the British Pound Sterling has been quoted at IRR 44,811, which is 0.5% lower than last week, while the free market GBPIRR rate had no change, standing at IRR 54,600.

 

The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, announced the country’s expected economic growth for the next Iranian year (March 2016 – March 2017) to stand at 5%, while giving a speech in the city of Rey, south of Tehran. He also talked about the government’s pro­posed budget plan for the next Iranian Calendar Year. According to the president, 75% of the government’s sources of income is planned to be financed by non-oil incomes, while the share of oil income would be reduced to 25%. Rouhani also mentioned a planned increase of 90% in the government’s construction budget and emphasized that more at­tention should be paid to water, the environment and agriculture projects. The construc­tion budget in the government’s spending bill is proposed at IRR 570,000 billion (approx. USD 19 billion). Also, the government’s general spending budget is considered at IRR 2,680,000 billion (approx. USD 90 billion). The budget will be discussed in the Iranian parliament, where it will be reviewed and potentially amended before implementation by the government. Mr. Rouhani also talked about the expected removal of sanctions on Iran in January and also quoted the Statistical Center of Iran regarding their latest report on the country’s inflation rate, which suggested a YoY rate of 9.9%. The Central Bank of Iran has yet to publish its report on the country’s inflation rate, expected next week, where the reporting of a potential single digit inflation rate would mark a significant mile­stone in the country’s recent economic history.

 

 

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Seven years after the crisis began, the global economy has taken decisive steps out of the dark. Just as the collapse hit countries in different ways, the way out has not been the same for everyone. Some countries have made it in high gear, others have been slowly working up through low ones.

But the process is well underway and in this programme we track the recovery with our own correspondents to see how connected the global economy is, and what to expect in 2016.

We start in the country that is now leading the recovery – the United States. The world’s largest economy made its way through the crisis and is now in a period of growth that is hopefully solid enough to stand the higher interest rates recently announced by the Federal Reserve.

That’s not the case in Europe yet. The recovery here is way behind. Eurozone countries don’t always share their advances, but they do share the problems.

We look at the economic fairy-tale in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, that’s been damaged by the country’s leading company. We check out the situation in Spain – one of the fastest growing in the block, where the data always look way better in the summer – and examine Greece, where the holiday season was really hot, though not relaxing.

After Europe, we go to Asia, where China became a ticking bomb when Beijing tried to slow down growth.

And finally we analyse parts of the Arab world where the recovery has been hit not only by lower oil prices, but also by terrorism that has taken a high toll on tourism and the wider economy.

 

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President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday the closure of investigations into Iran's past nuclear activities was a "big success" and a political victory for the country, and that the Islamic Republic would start implementing the deal within weeks.

"Now the main obstacle to implement the JCPOA is lifted ... Iran will start implementation of the nuclear deal within two or three weeks," Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on national television.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors passed a resolution on Tuesday ending its long-disputed issue of so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) to Iran's activities.

Rouhani hailed the IAEA's decision to close the books on a decade-long probe of allegations that Tehran worked on nuclear weapons, saying it paved the way for Iran to fulfill its remaining obligations under a landmark nuclear deal with world powers.

The probe had to be formally ended as part of the July 14 agreement, which will lift sanctions in return for Iran curbing its nuclear activities.

Rouhani, congratulating the people over the closure of the PMD, said, “The achievement was not just a legal or technical achievement.

"The resolution proved that the Islamic Republic is honest toward its people and the world and keeps its promise.”

The president also said the IAEA admitted that Iran’s nuclear program had no military dimensions and that Iran "had never been building an atomic bomb".

Rouhani said anti-Iran sanctions will be lifted in the coming weeks, noting this would prepare the ground for economic growth and interaction with the world. 

 

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