World  Business and Economic Analysis 

 

 

Minister of economic affairs has predicted Iran’s economy will definitely hit a single-digit inflation rate under ‘special conditions.’

Ali Tayyebnia, who was speaking on Monday in a ceremony in Tehran, said that oil-derived growth rate coming from exports of crude would not readily be felt by the public as drastic changes to better in economic conditions; “this is a mission for us to bring palpable changes and improvements to the lives of the masses; reviving small- and medium-sized industries and firms through helping them finance their debts would prove effective in moving toward a way out of recession,” he told the event. “We urge country’s banks and financial institutions to act seriously in this mission soon. Small and medium-sized industries and firms cover lives of the majority of people, and giving credits to these firms is a government policy in earnest.”

Tayyebnia also said that a common policy in the cabinet had been to encourage banks to choose individuals to the management echelons who would be incorruptible and well-versed in the banking knowledge; “individuals have in the majority of cases proved a failure, since the mechanism of their selection for top positions has been politically motivated and or they have not served banking system through their capabilities and expertise, but through cronyism which has preferred them for their connections to the high places in the government, ” he emphasized.

Tayyebnia then turned to the inflation rate; “the average inflation rate of the current month (May-June) or upcoming month (June-July) will be single-digit; we have already scored single digits in point-by-point inflation rate for last month; the inflation rate has been a down-hill path which is for the first time in the past 40 years,” he detailed.

Minister of economic affairs believed that the fiscal year ending in March 21, 2016 had been one of the harshest and most difficult  years in economic history of the country, with sanctions crippling the country’s international maneuvering power along with plunging oil prices which doubled the pressure of budget deficit; “however, the economy has been rebounding, albeit in slower pace, with JCPOA and the subsequent easing of pressures on the economy, which bestow on the economy ‘special conditions;’ during the same past 40 years, the country’s economy had the lowest growth rates an economy can afford, with national income shrinking up to 20 per cent; current attempts would only restore the economy to conditions before sanctions; further growth would then be translated into a modicum of improvement in public living conditions,” he depicted the conditions.

“Government debts exceeds $155bn, which accounts for 5-6 per cent of the public spending annually, thus the prospects of repayment of this volume of debts in short terms would be quite nebulous; with interest rate of whopping 22 per cent and inflation rate of 10 per cent, a condition totally unacceptable by banking principles, efforts should focus on immediate lowering of this 22 per cent; larger part of banks’ resources fail to be channeled into productive sectors of the economy and we have effective plans to meet this challenge,” he promised.

Source: Mehrnews Agency

 

 

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest report on countries’ risk index, reported Iran’s risk rating with one step improvement from 7 to 6 which shows Iran is ready for investment .

During the last meeting of Export Credit Guarantee Fund member experts to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Iran’s new economic and trade status following the implementation of the nuclear deal and the lift of sanctions were discussed and evaluated, and the members voted by consensus to reduce the country’s risk ranking from seven to six.

According to credit risk classification by the OECD, countries are divided into seven groups from low risk (1) to high risk (7). The Islamic Republic of Iran was placed in the 4th risk rating during its eight government in 2001 and was later moved to the 7th rating in the next governments after the imposition of international sanctions.

The countries’ risk rating determines investment attraction limit, the cost of credit insurance and foreign financing. As a result, the three government branches of Iran should put on agenda the adoption of appropriate monetary, foreign exchange and trade policies in order to further reduce the country’s risk rating.



An international group that monitors money laundering worldwide decided on Friday to keep Iran on its blacklist of high-risk countries but welcomed Iranian promises to improve and called for a one-year suspension of some restrictions on Tehran.
At a meeting of its 37 members in South Korea, the Financial Action Task Force also moved to keep North Korea on its blacklist and urged countries to be on guard against Pyongyang’s attempts to bypass sanctions to finance illicit weapons programs.
“The FATF welcomes Iran’s adoption of, and high-level political commitment to, an Action Plan to address its strategic (anti-money laundering and anti-terror financing) deficiencies,” the task force said in a statement.
“The FATF therefore has suspended counter-measures for 12 months in order to monitor Iran’s progress in implementing the Action Plan.”
The statement said that if Iran fails to improve its record as promised, the FATF’s call for vigorous counter-measures will be reinstated. If there is improvement, the task force will consider further positive steps.
The decision confirmed a Reuters story from earlier this week.
Iran has lobbied to get off the blacklist and is likely to treat the FATF announcement as a major victory. Tehran has complained it is not getting economic benefits promised it during last year’s negotiations on a nuclear deal with six major powers.
As a result of that agreement, many international sanctions against Iran were lifted. The United States, however, still has sanctions in place that prohibit trade with Iran in dollars and Iranian access to New York’s financial system. Banks remain wary of getting into trouble with US authorities.
“Practically speaking the FATF decision changes little since global financial institutions will continue to voluntarily implement strict counter-measures given their serious concerns over Iran’s illicit financial conduct,” said sanctions expert Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The FATF reiterated its appeal to countries around the world to “continue to advise their financial institutions to apply enhanced due diligence to (Iranian) business relationships and transactions.”

 Benefits
Getting off the FATF blacklist, which also lists North Korea, would remove a major hurdle Iran faces in dealing with outside banks and other financial institutions. Iranian and western officials have said that is why Tehran has been pushing hard to come off the list or at least to have the current FATF warning about it softened.
One Iranian official said prior to the meeting there had been multiple meetings between senior Iranian and European officials in recent months “to help Iran get off the blacklist.” He said the head of Iran’s central bank had discussed the FATF issue with US officials during a recent visit to the United States.
“We are very optimistic,” he said.
Iran has said criticism of its AML standards is unfair and contributes to the reluctance of major western banks and financial institutions to do business with it, despite encouragement from US President Barack Obama’s administration. Many large banks are disinclined to deal with Iran for fear of violating remaining US sanctions.
Since January, Iran has secured banking links only with smaller financial institutions.

  Business Concerns
Businesses are also wary about wading into Iranian waters until after the US presidential election in November.
“If (Donald) Trump becomes the next president, then he says he’ll tear up the Iran deal,” a European official said. “Hesitancy on the part of business is understandable.”
The US has sought to assure international companies that doing legitimate business with Tehran is acceptable. Last month US Secretary of State John Kerry told a meeting of bank executives in London that European banks should not fear punishment from the United States for resuming legitimate trade with Iran.
A European banking source, who was familiar with that meeting, said Kerry was told, “You may want the European banks to do business in Iran, but you do not let the US banks do so. The message to the politicians is that most banks still see too many risks.”

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