Summary

 The TSE All-Share Index gained 0.4% this week, to close at 61,691. The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange had started the week slightly in the red and had moved flatly on Sunday and Monday’s trading sessions. However, after the public holiday on Tuesday, the market grew by a larger scale on Wednesday. Banks had a remarkable positive effect on the TEDPIX’s performance on Wednesday which caused the market benchmark to experience its highest daily gain since October 18, 2015 (221 points or 0.4%).

By Technical Analysis perspective, investors’ reactions to the support level have kept the All-Share Index higher than the 61,500 mark for now. However, the index is still below its 50 day EMA by almost 1% and needs more progress to find its way back towards con­stant growth. In this respect, the index needs higher levels of trade volume supporting its minor gain to be able to reach the 63,000 level once again.

Similarly, the index of the thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index, recorded a weekly gain of 0.5%. The index also recorded its highest daily growth since October 18, 2015 on Wednesday (0.6%), as it closed at 2,582.

Moreover, the Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market dropped to almost USD 30 million, which is USD 5 million lower than the previous week. Although, last week’s figure was influenced by large volumes of trades in participation bonds, Sukuks and share blocks. The stocks with the highest traded values were Mellat Bank (BMLT), Iran Counter (CONT) and Azarab Industries Co. (AZAB) by recording USD 10.6, USD 9.6 and USD 7.4 million worth of trades respectively. Mellat Bank’s performance was not as sharp as other banks, as its share price closed at IRR 1,943 (approx. USD 5.3 cents), 0.3% higher than the previous week. Nevertheless, Iran Counter shares went through its uptrend reaching IRR 20,072 (approx. USD 54.9 cents), adding 21% this week. Azarab Industries Co. also recorded a gain of 13%, as its share price closed at IRR 3,500 (approx. USD 7.4 cents).

However, the FX market witnessed narrow changes of the Iranian Rial against major cur­rencies. The Central Bank of Iran announced the official rate of the USD at IRR 30,130, with no significant change compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, its free market rate reached IRR 36,513, adding 0.8%. Likewise, the official rate of the Euro increased by 0.1%, to stand at IRR 32,934, while the free market EURIRR rate recorded a growth of 1.1%, reaching 40,499. On the other hand, the official rate of the British Pound Sterling slipped by 0.3%, to stand at IRR 44,659, and the free market GBP rate reached IRR 54,550, 0.1% lower than last week.

The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) published its monthly inflation report on Saturday, report­ing changes to the Consumer Price Index for the ninth Iranian calendar month (November 22 to December 21). The report demonstrates that the YoY CPI growth has fallen to 9.4%. This is the first time that the country’s inflation rate has fallen to single digit territory in the past five and a half years. The government of president Rouhani has tar­geted the reduction of the inflation rate as one of its top economic policies. During the administration’s time in office, the inflation rate has fallen from around 45% in summer of 2013 to 9.4% in November 2015. However, according to the report, the MoM CPI index has grown by 1.3%, which is the highest recorded figure in six months. The monthly infla­tion figure suggests that keeping the YoY inflation rate below 10% may be a major eco­nomic challenge. On a monthly basis, the highest increase in prices has occurred in the category of Leisure & Cultural expenses which shows an increase of 3.9%. This is while the Tobacco category has had the highest negative change, declining by 0.7%. The year on year comparison also shows Tobacco as having the highest drop in prices on a yearly basis, falling by 1.7%. On the other hand, the report presents Education to have the high­est growth in prices on a yearly basis, increasing by 21%.

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Published: 01 January 2016

The Celtic Tiger rises, China holds up, Brazil and Russian sink deeper

When the final numbers are tallied, 2015 will probably count as another disappointing year for global growth.

The muted performance came even as central banks continued to pump in liquidity, oil prices plunged again and inflation was moderate.

It was also a year of divergent performers. While tumbling commodity prices took the shine off big emerging markets Russia and Brazil, other emerging economies like India and Vietnam surprised on the upside. In the developed world, robust U.S. jobs growth prompted the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy for the first time since 2006, while the gloom around neighboring Canada deepened.

With the year drawing to a close, here's a look at some of the winners and losers:
Mixed performance:

In advanced economies, smaller European nations were among the best performers. Ireland's economy grew by 7 percent in the third quarter--faster than China--and well ahead of the euro area's 1.6 percent growth in the same period.

By contrast, the picture was more subdued in Finland. The northernmost euro member, which was among the most vocal critics of Greece during its crisis bailout negotiations, is suffering as key industries like paper making and consumer electronics struggle. Weak export demand from Russia is also hurting.

In the emerging market world, clear standouts included Vietnam, Tanzania and, wait for it, China. Even after a $5 trillion stock market rout and what's tipped to be the slowest growth in 25 years, China's overall gross domestic product growth remains relatively robust compared to its peers. India's economy also expanded faster than expected in the third quarter when GDP rose 7.4 percent from a year earlier, after a 7 percent expansion in the previous quarter. 

The weakest performers included the usual suspects. Russia is on track for its longest slump in two decades mostly because of lower oil prices. Brazil has been dogged by the commodities slump, political turmoil, a corruption scandal and a widening budget gap. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned that the nation is sinking into “an outright depression."

A notable absentee from the list is Venezuela: that's because the central bank hasn't published GDP data for the year.
Honorary mention:

Japan gets a special mention for the recession that never was. A data revision meant that GDP expanded in the third quarter rather than contracting as previously thought, meaning  the world's third largest economy avoided a second recession in three years. Some economists say the performance shows Japan's economy is on an overall improving track, even if significant challenges remain.
Employment:

Away from the GDP numbers, employment data around the world paints a mixed picture.

The lowest jobless rates can be found in nations such as Japan and Switzerland, or Thailand and Singapore, but Western Europe remains stricken by high levels of joblessness. Double digit unemployment in places like Greece and Spain underscore the challenges ahead.

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Published: 30 December 2015