World  Business and Economic Analysis 



Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:44AM


                                            Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov (L) receives official welcome from his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in Tehran. ©IRNA                                    
                               Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov (L) receives official welcome from his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in Tehran. ©IRNA                                                                                                               

Iran and Turkmenistan have decided to raise their annual trade to $60 billion over the next decade, President Hassan Rouhani says. 

The Iranian president on Sunday received his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Tehran where heads of states of several countries are descending for the most high-profile summit of gas exporting countries.    

Bilateral trade has not surpassed $5 billion, first recorded in 2013, but officials of the two countries say the $60 billion target is achievable given enormous potentials which exist for cooperation.

Iran buys almost a third of Turkmenistan's exported gas for heating in winter and other use in the country’s northern provinces which are far from southern hydrocarbon fields.

There is also a railway link between the two neighbors, stretching over 926 kilometers up to Kazakhstan. It is emerging as a vital route to link the Central Asia to the Persian Gulf and beyond.

Iran and Central Asian nations have stepped up work on establishing an integrated freight railway network to link Asia to the Persian Gulf, Europe and Africa.

In their talks on Sunday, Turkmen and Iranian presidents underlined further cooperation in the fields of industry, agriculture, tourism and electrical power, the IRNA news agency said.

Rouhani said the two sides discussed bartering Turkmen gas for Iranian engineering and technical services.

They also talked about possible cooperation on exploring and developing joint oil and gas fields in the Caspian Sea, the Iranian president said.


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Stella Li, BYD Motors

Stella Li

Technology-Based and Innovation-Oriented

Editors’ Note


Stella Li is the President of BYD Motors, a green technology company based in Los Angeles, California. She is responsible for overseeing the company’s day-to-day operations and long-term strategic vision. As President, Stella successfully launched BYD technology and products –including battery-electric vehicles, battery-energy storage solutions, solar farms, and energy efficient LED lighting systems – into markets across North and South America and around the world. She is also the architect of BYD’s thriving expansions in the Americas – including its North America headquarters in Los Angeles, California in 2011 and its bus, truck, and energy module factories in Lancaster, California in 2013. Before being named President in February 2010, Stella served as BYD’s Senior Vice President and was responsible for expanding the company’s global sales and operations, including successfully launching BYD’s first overseas office in Hong Kong in 1997, first Europe headquarters in Rotterdam in 1999, and first North America headquarters in Chicago in 2000. Under Stella’s leadership, BYD experienced exponential market growth, developed invaluable partnerships, and became a dominant force across multiple industries around the globe. Stella earned her B.A. in Statistics from Fudan University  – one of the top five universities in China and among the most selective institutions of higher learning in the world.

Company Brief


Established in February 1995, BYD Company Limited ( is a multinational company that develops, manufactures, and sells advanced green technologies, rechargeable batteries, and cutting-edge manufacturing services. BYD’s core green products include battery-electric automobiles, battery-energy storage solutions, solar farms, and energy efficient LED lighting systems. As the world leader in battery-electric vehicle sales, BYD’s lithium iron phosphate rechargeable battery technology provides a safe, clean, and high-performing power source for the company’s revolutionary battery-electric passenger cars, buses, trucks, and industrial forklifts. BYD is also the world’s largest maker and supplier of rechargeable batteries, producing a record setting 10 gigawatt-hours of batteries per year. As a result of this robust production capability, the company owns the majority of the world’s market share for rechargeable batteries – including most of the batteries used in cellphones, tablets, and laptops. Finally, the company offers one of the most advanced contract manufacturing services in the global marketplace. It currently holds the world’s second-largest market share for milled aluminum frames commonly used in mobile devices. As an advocate for global sustainability, BYD has received numerous accolades and awards for its game-changing green products. For example, in 2015, BYD was ranked number 15 in FORTUNE Magazine’s companies that “Change the World” list and, in 2010, Bloomberg named BYD number eight in its “The World’s 50 Most Innovative Companies“ list. BYD investors and partners – including shareholder Berkshire Hathaway and joint venture partner Daimler AG – are among the most established and well-respected institutions in the world. In October 2011, BYD establish its North America headquarters in Los Angeles, California and in May 2013 completed two manufacturing facilities in Lancaster, California – an electric bus and truck factory and an energy module factory. Globally, BYD has more than 160,000 employees in offices spanning 12 countries.

Would you give an overview of BYD’s business and your view of what has made it so strong?

First it’s the technology and innovation. BYD has often invested in fields 10 years ahead of our competitors. Today, we are focusing heavily on the electric vehicle area.

BYD Electric Bus

BYD 60-foot, pure electric articulated bus,
with a 270 kilometer driving range and that requires
only three hours to fully charge

We also have a strong capability in rechargeable batteries and we have found ways to commercialize this new technology, which is having a significant impact on our business.

From day one, our dream has been to produce electric vehicles, so we have been working on that for many years. BYD has 160,000 global employees and almost 10 percent of those are engineers. This level of investment is a big differentiator for us in the industry.

This is truly a global business. What has led to this global strength and how important is the U.S. market?

With our strength in battery manufacturing and our technology behind those batteries, we are the only ones in the industry that have fully integrated technology going into electric vehicles.

In the U.S., there are very advanced policies to prepare us for dealing with coming change. In California, for instance, where there is a 20/30 policy relating to a 30 percent CO2 reduction in 20 counties, this creates an ideal environment for a company like ours to grow our business and market share.

These environmental issues will give us the chance to grow in the U.S. in the future and to build our plans in a unique way in terms of technology and innovation here and overseas.

BYD Tang

BYD Tang, a plug-in hybrid SUV with EV range
of 80 km, 0 to 100km/h in only 4.9 seconds,
only 2 liters of fuel for 100 km

You touched on innovation. Is the innovation primarily related to technology? Where is it happening in the business?

Innovation is happening in several ways. First it’s in integration as it relates to our electric fleet. For example, with our charging technology, we implement bidirectional charging and discharging technology, which makes our electric vehicles a moveable energy storage station.

For our buses, we use in-wheel drive motors so we can avoid a transmission, which means the powertrain system is more simple and less costly in the future.

In almost every area, we have advanced technology innovation. For example, we have around 500 different patents for our electric bus.

How large is the market for electric vehicles and what is your vision for what those cars will do to the transportation landscape?

We are timing it in the right way. We still firmly believe that over the next 10 years, consumer cars will move more towards hybrid. For the fleet vehicles, we need to work to be 100 percent electric.

Looking at the Chinese economy, there is slowed growth. Do people need to see growth differently in China when they look to the future?

Yes, even 5 or 6 percent will be very stable. The economy has relied on investment and second has been manufacturing. In the future, the growth will count on technology and innovation, so it will really make a difference.

The structure for China will be healthier.

BYD Line of Electric Vehicles

BYD’s total line of electric vehicles,
including consumer cars, taxis, buses,
trucks, and forklifts

When it comes to manufacturing in China, would you talk about quality standards and how elevated they have become?

A massive number of products are made in China, so there is a lot of manufacturing going on. China has ability to produce high-quality products. We produce a lot of products for other companies and we have to focus on the quality standards imposed by those companies. This has led to our manufacturing quality continuing to become better and better, which improves the reputation of Chinese companies.

However, there are still some small companies with a short-term mentality that continue to introduce lesser-quality product and damage the reputation of the other Chinese companies.

Many real estate partnerships with Chinese companies have developed in New York. Are you surprised by the impact Chinese companies are making in the U.S.?

There are more Chinese companies now in the U.S. than ever before, and they are more focused on their future here.

They used to just come here for real estate, but in the future, they will come here for technology, finance, all of these things. Their business will be more diversified and they will invest in different areas in the future.

As BYD grows, how important is it that the company maintain that innovative edge and is it harder to be innovative when you’re so large?

It’s a bit challenging, but not that hard. BYD is still a young, small company so we have a lot of areas into which we can grow.

What do companies need to know when they’re looking to build businesses in the Chinese market?

The market is very mature so they need to have local management. It is not really about the ability to create new companies. They must have a very good management style for mature businesses. If they send people who don’t know the Chinese language and culture to China, they may have trouble. It’s the same for Chinese companies that want to explore markets in other countries, i.e. we need to be localized, and we need local people. This will make a difference.•

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Photo of Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale's School of Management. He is the author of the new book Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

OCT 27, 2015

The Wrong War for Central Banking

BEIJING – Fixated on inflation targeting in a world without inflation, central banks have lost their way. With benchmark interest rates stuck at the dreaded zero bound, monetary policy has been transformed from an agent of price stability into an engine of financial instability. A new approach is desperately needed.

The US Federal Reserve exemplifies this policy dilemma. After the Federal Open Market Committee decided in September to defer yet again the start of its long-awaited normalization of monetary policy, its inflation doves are openly campaigning for another delay.

For the inflation-targeting purists, the argument seems impeccable. The headline consumer-price index (CPI) is near zero, and “core” or underlying inflation – the Fed’s favorite indicator – remains significantly below the seemingly sacrosanct 2% target. With a long-anemic recovery looking shaky again, the doves contend that there is no reason to rush ahead with interest-rate hikes.

Of course, there is more to it than that. Because monetary policy operates with lags, central banks must avoid fixating on the here and now, and instead use imperfect forecasts to anticipate the future effects of their decisions. In the Fed’s case, the presumption that the US will soon approach full employment has caused the so-called dual mandate to collapse into one target: getting inflation back to 2%.

Here, the Fed is making a fatal mistake, as it relies heavily on a timeworn inflation-forecasting methodology that filters out the “special factors” driving the often volatile prices of goods like food and energy. The logic is that the price fluctuations will eventually subside, and headline price indicators will converge on the core rate of inflation.

This approach failed spectacularly when it was adopted in the 1970s, causing the Fed to underestimate virulent inflation. And it is failing today, leading the Fed consistently to overestimate underlying inflation. Indeed, with oil prices having plunged by 50% over the past year, the Fed stubbornly maintains that faster price growth – and the precious inflation rate of 2% – is just around the corner.

Missing from this logic is an appreciation of the new and powerful global forces that are bearing down on inflation. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook, the price deflator for all advanced economies should increase by just 1.5% annually, on average, from now to 2020 – not much higher than the crisis-depressed 1.1% pace of the last six years. Moreover, most wholesale prices around the world remain in outright deflation.

But, rather than recognize the likely drivers of these developments – namely, a seemingly chronic shortfall of global aggregate demand amid a supply glut and a deflationary profusion of technological innovations and new supply chains – the Fed continues to minimize the deflationary impact of global forces. It would rather attribute low inflation to successful inflation targeting, and the Great Moderation that it presumably spawned.

This prideful interpretation amounted to the siren song of an extremely accommodative monetary policy. Unable to disentangle the global and domestic pressures suppressing inflation, a price-targeting Fed has erred consistently on the side of easy money.

This is apparent in the fact that, over the last 15 years, the real federal funds rate – the Fed’s benchmark policy rate, adjusted for inflation – has been in negative territory more than 60% of the time, averaging -0.6% since May 2001. From 1990 to 2000, by contrast, the real federal funds rate averaged 2.2%. In short, over the last decade and a half, the Fed has gone well beyond a powerful disinflation in setting its policy interest rate.

The consequences have been problematic, to say the least. Over the same 15-year period, financial markets have become unhinged, with a profusion of asset and credit bubbles leading to a series of crises that almost pushed the world economy into the abyss in 2008-2009. But rather than recognize, let alone respond to, pre-crisis excesses, the Fed has remained agnostic about them, pointing out that bubble-spotting is, at best, an imperfect science.

That is hardly a convincing reason for central banks to remain fixated on inflation targeting. Not only have they failed repeatedly to get the inflation forecast right; they now risk fueling renewed financial instability and sparking another crisis. Just as a few of us warned of impending crisis in the 2003-2006 period, some – including the Bank of International Settlements and the IMF are sounding the alarm today, but to no avail.

To be sure, inflation targeting was once essential to limit runaway price growth. In today’s inflationless world, however, it is counterproductive. Yet the inflation targeters who dominate today’s major central banks insist on fighting yesterday’s war.

In this sense, modern central bankers resemble the British army in the Battle of Singapore in 1942. Convinced that the Japanese would attack from the sea, the British defenses were encased in impenetrable concrete bunkers, with fixed artillery that could fire only to the south. So when the Japanese emerged from the jungle and mangrove swamps of the Malay Peninsula in the north, the British were powerless to stop them. Singapore quickly fell, in what is widely considered Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s most ignominious military defeat.

Central bankers, like the British army in Singapore, are aiming their weapons in the wrong direction. It is time for them to turn their policy arsenal toward today’s enemy: financial instability. On that basis alone, the case for monetary-policy normalization has never been more compelling.


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کتاب عملیات بانکی در عرصه بین الملل -سرفصل ها،ضمائم ،توصیه صاحب‏نظران ارزی و مدیران ارشد بانکی

Investment Consulting &Project Finance


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